Climate Outlook for Greater Horm of Africa June to September Released
PRESS RELEASE June to September Climate Season Forecast
June to September continues to be an important rainfall season for the northern sector as well as the costal and the western areas of the equatorial sector of the Greater Horn of Africa The regional consensus climate outlook for the next four months shows that the rains are likely to be near normal to
above normal over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa region.
The seasonal forecast indicates a likelihood of above normal rainfall over most of the northern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA): including southern parts of Sudan; most of Eritrea, South Sudan and Djibouti;Northern part of Uganda; western Kenya;as well as western, central and northern Ethiopia.
There is an increased likelihood of near normal to below normal rainfall over costal and the western parts of the equatorial sector during the next rainfall season between June to September 2016: including much of Uganda,
northern coast of Tanzania, Kenyan coast and southern coast of Somalia
According to the climate outcome released in Naivasha on Tuesday, over the rest of the GHA areas June to September 2016 is a dry season and these areas are expected to remain generally dry during the forecast period. These include northern half of Sudan; eastern parts of Ethiopia;eastern parts of Kenya;almost all of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi and much of Somalia; and southern parts of Uganda.
June to September (JJAS) constitutes an important rainfall season over the northern sector of the GHA region.
Speaking when he released the regional outlook on Tuesday, the representative to the Director of the Kenya Meteorological
Department, Mr. Elijah Bukachisaid the outlook is only relevant for this season.He also noted that local and month-to-month variations might occur as the Juneto September 2016season progresses.
“ I am sure with the early warning that there is a likelihood of a La Nina phenomenon manifesting itself during the later part of the year and with the discussions on preparedness and response for the post El Niño impact, the representatives of the various sectors are better prepared on how to respond to the future extreme events,” said Mr. Elijah Bukachi.
He pointed out that the Global climate centres under the coordination of World Meteorological Organisation will continue to provide status of global climate updates, ICPAC will also provide regional updates on regular basis while the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will provide detailed national and sub-national updates.
In his closing remarks the guest of honour COL (RTD) Nathan Kigotho said, “The early warning information generated in this forum will be extremely important in our region, where vagaries of the climate variability and change are playing havoc to the national development plans.
The inclusion of media participants in the forum is very important considering that they are better suited to
disseminate the early warning information generated at this forum.”
Dr Solomon Muchina Munyua Coordinator GFDRR IGAD spoke on behalf of the World Bank representative Dr Francis Muraya the TTL GFDRR. In his closing remarks he
said, “The World Bank continues to support IGAD and ICPAC member states to better prepare for climate extremes and other hazards through a number of programmes and projects including the member state and
regional pastoral programme, the GHADRSI and the IGAD DRR/M programme. To ensure that the countries that are not covered by these programmes do not fall behind ,the World Bank has encouraged South-South collaboration and provided grants to make up for any shortfalls.
The World Bank team has taken serious note of the submissions by the Somalia and South Sudan delegations and special attention will be given to these two IGAD member states to ensure that they do not fall far behind others in developing and rolling out their DRR/M policies and the associated legal framework and contingency plans”
The Director of ICPAC, Dr Guleid Artan said, “We should strive to disseminate the early warning messages that will come out of this meeting at all levels of the region by using different platforms to maximize and reach more people in IGAD/EAC region”.
The Forty Third Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF43) was convened by ICPAC and sponsored by World Bank, USAID, UNDP, UK MET
and UNISDR; hosted by the Government of the Republic of Kenya through the Kenya Meteorological Department, to formulate a consensus regional climate outlook for the
June to September 2016rainfall season over the GHA
The GHA region comprises Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.
IGAD Climate Predictions and
Mrs. Wawira Jambo, Communications and Outreach Officer, ICPAC,
About ICPAC (IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre)
is the specialised IGAD institution which covers IGAD members’ states plus Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi. ICPAC provides climate information in the GHA regions to support
environment management and disaster risk reduction for sustainable development. ICPAC extends its services to four main sectors including water, agriculture, and health and disaster risk management.