Greater Horn of Africa March, April, May Seasonal Forecast Released

Kigali-Rwanda: Seasonal Forecast: MAM-2016
Published 24/02/16

The March to May months constitute an important rainfall season over the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. The regional consensus climate outlook for the March to May 2016 season indicates an increased likelihood of near normal to below normal rainfall over central and southern parts of Sudan, southwestern Eritrea, western and southern Djibouti, northern and eastern Ethiopia, extreme northern and southern Somalia, northern parts of South Sudan, eastern and southern Kenya, much of Tanzania and extreme southern Burundi. Much of Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, southern and eastern parts of South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, central Somalia as well as western, northwestern and central Kenya have increased probability for near normal to above normal rainfall during March to May 2016 season.

The major processes considered as key drivers of the regional climate during March-May 2016 season included atmospheric-ocean conditions over the adjacent Indian and Atlantic Oceans as well as the predicted neutral Indian Ocean Dipole mode and decaying El NiƱo conditions. The outlook is relevant for the March-May 2016 season as a whole and for relatively large areas.

Local and month-to-month variations might occur as the season progresses. It is likely that episodic heavy rainfall events leading to flash floods might occur even in areas with an increased likelihood of near normal to below normal rainfall. Also, dry spells may occur in areas with an increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall. ICPAC will provide regional updates on regular basis while the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will provide detailed national and sub national updates.